Speakers: Thomas Small & Aimen Dean
Thomas: Hello, dear listeners, Thomas Small here coming to you on a cold January morning for a special episode of Conflicted on what has been an eventful and troubling start to 2024.
And as ever, I'm with my wonderful co-host, speaking to me from warmer climes. Aimen Dean, how are you?
Aimen: I'm fine. I just came back from the swimming pool, man.
Thomas: Come on. Don't rub my face in it. Goodness. I'm literally sitting here in my dressing gown. I'm freezing.
Aimen: And I just switched off the AC because it was a little hot actually.
Thomas: Well, Northern Europe meets the Middle East, that's Conflicted for you. At the end of season four, you'll remember, dear listener, we embarked on a grand five-part series looking at the history and politics of Yemen.
From the birth of the modern state in the mid-20th century through dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh’s rule, the Arab Spring, and the Houthis takeover leading to the Civil War, which has engulfed the country since 2014.
Now, unless you've been living under a rock, you'll have seen the dramatic recent developments in Yemen, which have seen the Houthis add their muscle to the spreading conflict in the Middle East.
The Houthis have been hijacking and bombing commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea, and now they are being bombed in return by a coalition led by the U.S. and the UK. What a time to be alive, Aimen.
Aimen: Indeed, and goodness, it's been very, very busy time, I think for all of us who work in this industry.
Thomas: I'm sure that's the case, Aimen. I have been looking forward to this episode well for weeks, really, because unlike you, my access to information on the Middle East is basically limited to the media.
And in November and December with everything that was happening, I just realised, gosh, I don't know what to trust here, which reports are accurate. The fog of war definitely had descended on my mind.
So frankly, around Christmas time, I sort of withdrew a bit. I focused more on my spiritual life Aimen. Because God knows the mystery of the Holy Trinity is less complicated than Middle Eastern geopolitics at the moment.
So, I'm really looking forward to talking to you. Today, we're doing a special episode to answer listeners' questions on what this all means for the Civil War in Yemen, what the future holds for Israel and Gaza, and whether all this will continue to escalate into a wider regional and even global conflict. Let's jump right in.
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Now, before we start answering your questions dear listener, I want to point you all in the direction of a new Conflicted platform we're launching in the coming weeks. Many of you will have interacted with us on X, formerly Twitter and on our Facebook discussion group. And we've always been blown away by the responses we get and the community that has grown around our show.
So, we want to take that a step further by launching the Conflicted Community, which will be your hub on Discord for all things Conflicted.
What is Discord? I hear you cry. Well, I'm glad you asked. Discord is an app, which is essentially an instant messaging community platform, which will allow you to discuss all things Conflicted with fellow dear listeners, to share resources we mention in the show and to engage in riveting post episode debates.
This is a paid for community and for a small monthly fee, you'll get access to the Discord channel, the opportunity to chat with myself and lucky you, Aimen, exclusive content and bonus episodes and ad free listening as well.
If this sounds up your street (and dear listener, why on earth wouldn't it), then please do register your interest through the link levellr.com/conflicted. That's L-E-V-E-L-L-R.com/conflicted.
You can find that link and more about this in the show notes. We are hugely excited to get the Conflicted Community up and running, and we'll be launching it in the coming weeks. So, watch this space.
Now, Aimen, turning to the Middle East, or really the miserable East, it really is looking like the miserable East at the moment, isn't it, Aimen?
Aimen: Indeed. It's been extremely exhausting both mentally and physically, Thomas. Of course, the events are horrific to see and horrific to experience, not to mention, it's been mentally exhausting and physically exhausting because of my line of work. There isn't a dull moment.
And somehow since I left the UK a year and a half ago and I relocated to the Middle East, I feel like I'm in the middle of it. Where you really live the events, you feel them around you, you can actually tell the effects.
People coming from war zones and telling their stories. You hear about the aid that is going to Gaza. You see a group of Yemenis disgruntled and talking in a cafe somewhere and insulting the country they are living in at the moment.
So, while you were able to switch Thomas off from the events, my clients never let me off the hook. Not a single day, not a single night.
Thomas: Well, you're the guy to talk to. Someone once said, “War is the health of the state,” but it seems that war is the health of Aimen Dean as well.
Now, since we last spoke about the region following the attacks of 7th October, the war in Gaza has been raging. Aimen, how would you describe the situation there on the ground now? I mean, Israel continues to launch error strikes against positions, Hamas positions in Gaza. And civilian casualties in great numbers at times continue.
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry says that the death toll in Gaza is more than 24,100 people. The Israeli defence forces say that 8,000 or so Hamas fighters have been killed. What's your estimation, Aimen, of the situation there on the ground?
Aimen: Horrific, without any shadow of a doubt, it is horrific. What's happening in Gaza would bleed the heart of anyone who's watching it. There is no question about that.
And I always struggle whenever I brief people from either side of the divide or people who are neutral without having to touch on the fact that there is a level of brutality and a level of indiscriminate killing that is happening. But we have to come back, and we say, well, it was inevitable.
Thomas: Yeah. You said in our emergency episode in October, you said that Israel was going to respond with great brutality to the provocation of the 7th of October attacks, and Hamas launched those attacks. Let's be honest.
They certainly would've known surely, Aimen, what was coming, or have even Hamas and its leadership been taken away by the scale of Israel's response?
Aimen: I think they were taken away, not by Israel's level of response. They knew that the Israelis are going to be vicious and brutal in their response. There's no question about that. It was going to happen regardless.
However, I think they were mistaken in believing that they will be aided by the so-called access of resistance members, talking here about Iran, Hezbollah and Lebanon, the Iraqi Shia militias, and the Houthis in Yemen, to some extent.
They thought that they will enter the war with their entire might in order to finally once and for all finish the Israelis. But in fact, they started to believe right now that maybe, maybe there was another agenda here.
Because you see any entity, any governing entity, and by the way, Hamas is not a legitimate governing entity, but it is a de facto governing entity. And so, therefore, their primary responsibility towards those who they govern is the protection of their welfare and their wellbeing.
And therefore, if they feel, we are surrounded, we are besieged, we are this, we are that, no problem. But any action you take must take into account the gains in contrast to the losses. Are you going to gain more than what you would lose? And the answer here is definitely no, no, no.
Thomas: So, what's this other agenda you mentioned?
Aimen: I truly believe that Iran wanted to punish Israel and the West for the killing of Qasem Soleimani.
Thomas: So, this is the former head of the Quds Force who was assassinated in 2020 or 2019. Remind me.
Aimen: Yes. Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by Abu Ivanka, as we call him in the Middle East, known as President Trump.
Thomas: Donald Trump.
Aimen: Yeah. He was assassinated on the 3rd of January in Baghdad in 2020.
Thomas: And of course, dear listener, we did do an emergency episode on that event back in 2020. So, go back and listen if you're not up to date.
Aimen: Indeed. So, there is an issue here also, is the fact that Iran wanted from the beginning to sabotage a Middle East that is heading towards the normalisation of relations between the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as the solidification of the nation state model, because Iran hate the nation state model. So, they wanted to sabotage it.
Thomas: As you made clear in our emergency episode in October. Now, you say that the Hamas expected the access of resistance to get involved.
Now, we'll talk about the Houthis, one member of that resistance in a second, but the axis of resistance hasn't been completely uninvolved. I mean, there have been missile strikes from Hezbollah, Hezbollah and Israel are fighting each other, assassinations taking place in Beirut.
So, what level of engagement are the other members of the axis of resistance presenting in the field of battle?
Aimen: Well, I mean, of course, basically Hezbollah is exchanging fire with the Israelis in the Southern Lebanese border. And of course, it's a Northern Israeli border, and the exchanges being heavy. And as we speak today, there has been one of the heaviest air strikes by the Israelis against Hezbollah in the South of Lebanon.
But nevertheless, we are not talking about this massive 2006 style war that Hamas was hoping for. Also, they were hoping that the Houthis in Iran would have intervened much earlier than they would have indicated before.
So, in a sense, it feels as if Iran was lining up its children with the Houthis and the Iraqi militias and the Hezbollah and Hamas in their racing track, and they're all ready. And then as soon as Iran pulled the trigger for the starting of the race, Hamas left and started sprinting, but the others stayed put.
Thomas: Well, some analysts say that this is an indication that Iran wasn't the ultimate mastermind behind the 7th of October, and that Hamas kind of carried it out on its own, maybe with a certain amount of coordination from Iran.
But why would Iran lead Hamas down the Primrose path in that way if Iran had masterminded the operation?
Aimen: Well, because they wanted one of their proxies to hurt Israel and the West as much as possible. So, they went to the only Sunni proxy, a disposable one, and they decided that, yeah, that's it.
This is the one that will take our revenge. This is the one that will create massive upheaval for the Israelis to remind the Israelis, okay, Hamas is just 10 times smaller than Hezbollah, and therefore this is what they can do to you in one day, if you ever try to attack us in the future, well we have the bigger one in the north that we can do.
And so, it was multiple birds killed with one stone as far as Iran is concerned. One is revenge for Qasem Soleimani. Two is a reminder to everyone how much Iran can sabotage the Middle East. And a third one also the same time, is that okay, I can use a disposable proxy in the meantime, a Sunni one rather than a Shia one.
But what Iran is forgetting here is the fact that the Israelis know this, and this is why they are egging on, and they are willing to go and destroy the crown jewel of Iran's deterrence in this entire big strategic game, which is Hezbollah.
That is why the Israelis are pushing and pushing and pushing and pushing Hezbollah further and further into accepting the reality. Either you withdraw north of the Litani River in Lebanon away from the Israeli border, or face a total destruction, something that Hezbollah won't accept.
And therefore, the possibility of a massive conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is now almost a certainty. Almost a certainty.
Thomas: How extremely interesting, Aimen. I mean, Iran's gambit certainly has succeeded in terms of shifting the chess pieces on the geopolitical game board of the Middle East on seriously continuing to undermine America's authority in the region. America's prestige globally, Israel's normalisation program with Arabs.
Any idea vague and frankly imaginary as it already was, of a two-state solution, is about as dead as it possibly could be imagined. Iran's gambit in the short-term at least seems to have worked very well.
But let's move to Yemen. In terms of what has been going on in Yemen, our dear listener, PJ Spencer asked us on X “It would be nice,” he asked, “To have an updated understanding of the state of the Civil War in Yemen just prior to the conflict breaking out in Gaza.”
So, he mentions the tenuous ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, et cetera. In our five-part series on Yemen, Baraa, our dear friend, he made it clear that there was a kind of relative calm because of the peace brokered by China, between Saudi and Iran and the Houthis, et cetera.
So, just before the Houthis decided that they had to respond aggressively to the events of October 7th and the Israeli response to those events, what was the situation in Yemen like?
Aimen: Well, I wish Baraa was here. Hi, Baraa, if you're listening. So, I think, in my opinion, the Houthis were stolen for time. They were in a period of endless negotiations with the Saudis. They were having this contentious point between them and the Saudis.
The Saudis insist on being regarded by all parties in Yemen, and that include both the government in Aden and the Houthis in Sana’a as a mediator. The Houthis were refusing for a while and saying, “No, no, no, no, you are a active belligerent participant in this conflict.”
Then they relented just a month before the conflict and said, “Okay, okay-
Thomas: The Houthis relented. Yeah.
Aimen: Yes. They said, “We will grant you the status of a mediator.” However, as soon as the conflict started between the Israelis and Hamas, this is when the Houthis found in this conflict, a new lease of life for their troubled militant movement in Yemen. How?
You see, they found in this conflict a golden opportunity. First of all, Israel's too far away, good. When I was young, someone offend me in the playground in the school, so I pretend as if I'm going to lunge at him. And of course, basically one of my friends would be holding me, and I will say, loudly, “Let me go, let me go.”
And then I would whisper, “Don’t, don't you ever let me go.” So, I have no interest in fighting. So, of course, this is the Houthis, basically, they are firing at Israel knowing basically that the Israelis are too far away. They are 2000 kilometres away.
So, this is when they thought that we have our golden opportunity. We don't have an immediate border. Perfect. We send a token, few ballistic missiles and drones and cruise missiles, which until now did not even cause a single scratch on a single Israeli, whether civilian or military.
And so, therefore, they win the domestic propaganda battle, their battle for the heart and minds, the narratives battle that is going on in Yemen.
Now, when they then invite an aggression by the Americans and by the Brits, everyone will say, “You see.” The Houthis will say, “Look, look, look, look, look, we told you we are against the imperialism. We are against the forces of global arrogance. We are this, we are that.”
The usual slogan soup that we always hear about. In other words, they want to paint their enemies as pro-Israel inside Yemen and outside.
Thomas: Of course, you mean the Houthis enemies inside Yemen, the government in Aden et cetera. If the Houthis can tar their fellow Yemeni antagonists as being pro-Israel, it helps them win the hearts and minds of the people.
Now, you say Aimen, that the ballistic missile attacks, the drone attacks at Israel cause no damage. The Houthis probably knew it would cause no damage. But what about the more recent Houthis engagement with commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea? That was massively provocative to the whole world.
The calculus there, the Houthis calculus, is surely slightly different. So, we have another question from a dear listener, StrangerinaStrangeMeme on X … what a world we live in, Aimen. Honestly.
Aimen: Love our listeners.
Thomas: This person asks, “What are the Houthis objectives in the Red Sea? And what impact are they likely to have on the Civil War?”
I think probably the answer to that second half of the question is the same as you said, the Houthis aggression is redounding to their benefit within the Civil War calculus there, because the Yemenis are realising that yes, the Houthis are resisting imperial aggression.
But the first half of that question, what are the Houthis objectives in the Red Sea? What are they thinking, Aimen?
Aimen: Well, actually, to answer this question, we have to ask, what is Iran thinking? Because we cannot take the Houthis actions in the Red Sea without taking into account the actions of Iran in the region.
And I'll tell you why. And this is some information that came to me in September. As you know, I was more or less aware of the terms of Iran's agreement with the Saudis. It was brokered by the Chinese in March of 2023.
Thomas: Yes. Which you laid out for us so kindly in our episode last year on Yemen. Yeah.
Aimen: Exactly. So, and one of the terms is that the Iranian experts, Iranian ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and drone experts must leave Yemen, which they did.
But then in September, I've received this information without disclosing the source, or even from which place that information came, in which it says that the Saudis were extremely angry that their intelligence picked up the return of the experts from Iran back to Yemen, as well as the return of Hezbollah experts back into Yemen.
So, when I saw that, and of course I briefed some clients at the time about it, we were worried, and it's like, what does it mean? Is it going to be the presumption of hostilities?
But then October 7th happened two, three weeks later, and we started looking at each other and thinking, “Uh-huh, okay, was Iran unaware of it already? And this is why they placed them there in advance of any potential event.” That's the first thing.
The second thing is that there is an Iranian spy ship that is sailing across from the Southern Red Sea to the Northern Arabian Sea crossing Bab al-Mandab Strait all the time. And that Iranian spy ship has been feeding the Houthis information about the movement of vessels, commercial and military throughout the entire last two and a half months.
Thomas: So, Iran is directly involved in this aggression against Red Sea shipping.
Aimen: Look, Thomas, you and I, we know each other now since 2014. Almost like we are coming to the 10th anniversary, happy 10th anniversary to my, to you my dear-
Thomas: Happy anniversary.
Aimen: So, you remember when we met, we were working on something that is Yemen related, and I sent you a clip of a Lebanese Hezbollah individual related to Hezbollah talking on Iraqi TV, belonging to the Iraqi militias about how the Houthis, their allies are controlling the maritime roots.
That was in 2015. And he said exactly this. He said, “Nahn salatin albahr al'ahmar.” Do you remember this phrase? We are the Sultans of the Red Sea.
So, when people tell me, “Oh Aimen, you're talking conspiracy theories here, you're talking whatever,” guys, there is literally hours of material online with people themselves who are Iranian IRGC officers, who are Hezbollah officials, who are Houthi officials, themselves are saying it, loud and clear that this is their agenda, this is what they want to do.
And so, it is a coordinated effort because Iran wants to send a message to the world, no peace in the Middle East without us being the boss in the region.
Thomas: And that includes no global shipping, unless the whole world just accepts this fact that we are the hegemonic power of the region, not the United States, not Israel, not the Saudis.
Aimen: Exactly.
Thomas: So, Iran's sending that message, let's talk about the message that the U.S. and the UK have sent back in return.
Eliza Gosling, a dear listener on Facebook, asks “I'd like to hear Thomas and Aimen's perspectives on the recent military strikes.” I think she means the UK, US military strikes in Yemen. “Did the UK do the right thing? And where are other European countries in this, the UK has been referred to as a U.S. puppet with their recent military strikes on Yemen. Where do the likes of France and Germany sit in all this?”
So, dear listener, as you I'm sure you know, on Friday the 12th of January, the UK and the U.S. “executed” deliberate strikes on over 60 targets at 16 Iranian backed Houthis militant locations.
The Pentagon described these targets as radar systems, drone storage and launch sites, missile storage and launch facilities, and Houthis command and control nodes. And a Houthi spokesman has said that five of its members were killed and six injured.
Not a tremendously high death count, I must say, but Aimen, as to Eliza's questions, did the UK do the right thing? And what about other European powers? Where do they sit in this?
Aimen: First of all, I believe that the U.S. and the UK did not do the right thing at all. At all. They should have done more.
Thomas: I mean, I must say I've been in touch with Baraa over WhatsApp in the last few days. In fact, he wrote a very strongly worded, I must say, a very powerful message, a letter to the Times of London, which was published in which he argued something very similar.
Aimen: Exactly. Because why? Do you know why the Saudis, the Egyptians and the Emiratis did not join the coalition that the U.S. built? The so-called Guardians of Prosperity, whatever it is.
The reason for these powers not joining, even though many people would think that, hey, it’s Saudi Arabia, hey, it is the UAE, it’s Egypt, they are the ones who, if they joined, that would give legitimacy to this entire exercise.
But because, and this is where many listeners would be surprised of what I'm going to say, because when the Saudis and the Emiratis and the Egyptians asked the Americans, they said, “Okay, perfect coalition with you.
Goodness. Okay, are you going all the way or are they going to be just small surgical strikes, and then you will leave us to our own devices to get slaps by the Houthis once you leave?”
So, the Americans said, “Oh, no, no, no. It's just basically for small strikes here and there,” they said, “Get lost. We're not going to be part of your coalition.”
Thomas: I'm glad you brought that up, Aimen. Because another dear listener, Michael Higgins on Facebook asked why Saudi Arabia hadn't taken any action, hadn't joined in on the UK/U.S. airstrikes, especially as it would've given them, what he suggests would be a PR opportunity to show that they’re policing the region and degrading their enemy.
But you are saying that the Saudis might have been happy to join in if the U.S. and the UK had organised a much more comprehensive response.
Aimen: Exactly.
Thomas: I mean, Baraa was telling me, and I don't think he'll oppose me saying this out loud, he was telling me that the solution, as always, is to work directly with those Yemeni military forces on the ground who could be rallied to fight the Houthis.
Airstrikes alone over the last eight years have not really done much to change the situation. Airstrikes is a tired strategy for shifting political realities when they don't suit you.
Aimen: Exactly. And also, I need to stress that the Saudis told the Americans either go big or go home. Even I remember when Saudi official was telling me that it feels as if the Americans are wearing the fluffiest of all velvet gloves, when it comes to the Houthis for the fear of not spreading the conflict.
He said to me, “Sometimes fear of provoking conflicts, invite conflicts.” This is the problem.
Thomas: It is the problem. But there's a tremendously powerful line of analysis that comes from the United States really saying that beginning with Barack Obama, and continuing now into the administration of President Biden, the United States foreign policy apparatus has had one goal in mind, one preeminent goal not to enter into war against Iran.
No matter how much the ghost of John McCain hovers over the Senate chanting, “Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran.”
Aimen: Iran.
Thomas: The foreign policy apparatus and the Pentagon knows, quite frankly, that America cannot win in a war against Iran. Therefore, it does not want to start such a war. So, that's why it has the velvet gloves.
And I say all this Aimen, because our dear listener, Bill Richard on Facebook asks us, “What is the most productive thing the UK and the U.S. could be doing militarily in Yemen or even the region,” he says, “To achieve long-term peace, leave things completely alone, continue with airstrikes in Yemen against the Houthis, or is there more the West could be doing?”
Now, I don't know what you say, Aimen. And we'll get to this at the end of the episode. But I am extremely pessimistic about the West's America's capacity to prosecute war intelligently in the region, in such a way that it would actually solve the problem.
Aimen: Look, I am one of those who will never, ever, ever, ever advocate a direct war with Iran, let me put this out to every single listener here. I do not believe the solution is to have a direct conflict with Iran, because first of all, Iran is uninvadable and a war with them directly unwinnable, and for multiple reasons.
And one of it is just the geography. It's a massive country. It's 1.7 million square kilometres and topography, it is mountainous. It is three times the size of Afghanistan. So, it is three times more difficult than Afghanistan. So, forget it, it's not going to happen.
But here is where I advocate, I still advocate war, I still advocate a massive, overwhelming force, but not against Iran.
Thomas: Against the Houthis.
Aimen: Against every single proxy they have, every single non-state actor that is armed to the teeth. Every illegitimate body of politics or body of military need to be removed, surgically removed from the face of the Middle East in order for the Middle East to go back into normality.
Thomas: It sounds to me, Aimen, that you are in fact, therefore advocating the Israeli policy that you outlined at the beginning of the episode. We'll get back to this. We're going to take a quick break and when we return, we'll be answering more of your questions, dear listeners. A few more on Iran and what all this means for the future of the region. We'll be right back.
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We are back. Now Aimen, before the break, you said that you advocate war, you advocate that the West and presumably an alliance of global powers tactically, but with full force dislodge those non-state actors in the region linked to Iran.
You earlier in the episode said that Israel right now is actually trying to provoke Hezbollah into launching a war against them more than Hezbollah actually wants in order to create the conditions for just such a war, if I've understood you correctly.
Aimen: Yes, yes. I mean, ironically, I don't want to sound pro-Israeli, but in this sense, the Israelis would be doing the world and the region of favour if they get rid of Hezbollah, but they can't on their own, forget it. It's impossible.
So, therefore, they need the might of the U.S. They need the might of the European Union, let me put it this way, for me, and for every rational individual in the Middle East, for the sake of peace. Look, Iran is like a Persian cat that has long claws.
And what you do for your pet, when they have long claws, you come and declaw them basically a little bit, so they don't scratch the sofas, scratch the wires, scratch everything that you hold dear, valuable in your house.
Thomas: Your metaphors and analogies, Aimen. Honestly, you should just be in the meme making business.
Aimen: Who said I'm not. But anyway, so I can tell you that for me, when people say what you want? You want a prolonged war with Iran, I say no, Iran will not engage in direct conflict if we don't engage them in direct conflict.
Therefore, the best way to do it is they are holding guns to the heads of the modern nation states in the Middle East, that is Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, they are occupying for Arab capitals, Baghdad, the Damascus, Beirut and Sana’a.
Why? And for what end, and did they could do any good? Just look at the state of the countries where Iran has a prevalent influence there. That is why we need to remove their proxies.
Thomas: Well, you've just invoked your notorious Mexican standoff within a Mexican standoff. We're going to come back to it in a second.
You mentioned the European Union, which reminded me that we missed out answering the second half of Eliza's question about France and Germany. So, where do France and Germany stand geo-strategically in the current struggles in the Middle East?
Obviously as NATO members, obviously as Western countries, they are largely integrated into America's global military umbrella, if you like, but they have foreign policies of their own.
Germany's foreign policy has always been very tricky because it's (especially recently with the Russia-Ukraine conflict), completely undermining Germany's entire political economy.
France's foreign policy has usually been structured to try to create or to sustain a fading glory of France. But what are France and Germany's perspectives, or let's say strategic positions in the Middle East at the moment?
Aimen: Well, actually, the information I have is that both the French and to a lesser extent, the Germans wanted to join that alliance with the Americans, provided that there are two things happen.
The first one is that some regional countries join, including Saudi Arabia, at least, in order to add that legitimacy and credibility to the mission. But second, what put off both the Germans and the French was the American insistence on a complete tight chain of command that is entirely American.
Thomas: I'm sure the French especially did not like that.
Aimen: No, not at all. Not even the Germans. And they said, “No, thank you so much. First of all, this is not what we wanted. And it has to be joint decisions, and the chain of command should be coordinated, a joint chain of command, not everyone under the strict command of the Pentagon.”
And this is why they did not join, really because of the fact that, again, the velvet glove issue here, Thomas, we come back to the issue that what is the end game? There is no end game as far as the Americans are concerned, except just stop harassing the shipping lanes. That's it.
There is no other objective. So, from the point of view of the French and the Germans, what is the end game here? And if you are going to keep the chain command so tight, what if you do something that we don't agree with?
Thomas: Well, this is the big question, America, we'll get to it at the end. Obviously for personal reasons, it's the one that often animates my thinking the most.
Now, the U.S. and the UK have launched these strikes, as you say, velvet strikes to some large extent, and Jos Tector, our dear listener asks us on X, “How do you see the Iranian regime reacting to these strikes? Do they use them to add to the West versus Middle East rhetoric, simply to help manage their own internal affairs a bit like the Houthis are doing? Or do you see Iran feeling compelled to escalate?”
Aimen: Of course, the Iranians are going to escalate. Look at what happened just this morning when Iran launched 17 ballistic missiles against a site in Erbil, they claim to be a Mossad base. It just happened to be an empty building, just very close to the American consulate there in Erbil and KRG and Kurdistan in Iraq.
I mean, it just shows you that for Iran, this is all about the much bigger picture in the geopolitical grand game in the Middle East.
I know for a fact that in Oman, in Muscat, talks are ongoing between the American side and the Iranian side through mediators in order to achieve what they call a comprehensive pan-Middle East settlement, where Iran gets a lot of its desires to be recognized as a nuclear power nation, to be recognized as having influence and sovereignty in Iraq and Syria and Lebanon and Yemen.
As well as, trying to say we want to have some changes in the political outcome in Bahrain, we want a greater rise for the Shia minorities in Kuwait. I mean, they are putting really some ludicrous demands that everyone knows that it's not in the hands of America to give. It's not America's gift to give to begin with.
Thomas: Well, really nor in America's interests to give them.
Aimen: Exactly. So, at the moment, the Iranians are asking for ridiculous demands and saying, well, this is the price for a complete comprehensive settlement for the Middle East, which basically, if you want to have a complete comprehensive settlement without the participation of all the other Middle Eastern parties, you can go home.
Because the Americans tried to ignore the Saudis for two and a half years, it didn't work. So, they can't force the Saudis to accept Iran's terms right now. So, in other words, Iran is talking to people demanding something that they do not own.
Thomas: That sets up the next question, very tidily, Aimen. So, El Goldie on Facebook asks, “If Iran were to activate all four guns pointed at Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and the Syrians, the Alawite Syrian regime,” El Goldie says, “To create a broader war in the region, how do you think Saudi Arabia and the broader Sunni world would respond?”
You usually number the Iraqi militias as the fourth member of the resistance, not the Syrian regime, though of course, Bashar al-Assad is not disconnected from Iran's foreign policy apparatus.
So, let's focus first on Saudi. What are the princes and the policymakers in Riyadh thinking right now?
Aimen: The thinking is like this, we will stay the hell out of it, unless if the U.S. is willing along with their allies to put their heart entirely into it.
In other words, either you come, and you dismantle Iran's proxies in the region, and then we will participate with you. We with the Egyptians and the Emiratis, and everyone will participate happily with you.
If you are about to dismantle Iran's cancerous non-state actors, spreading terror, hate, and backward ideology in the region, no problem. We will join you.
But if you don't, if you have no interest, if you just going to treat this with velvet gloves and you don't want any war with Iran or any other person, then why do we have to risk it?
If Israel is being attacked by everyone, none of our business, from the point of view of the Saudis, they will stay the hell out of it. Unless if dragged against their will into it, then they will give everyone a bloody nose and more. So, in other word, basically, they will throw everything they have at it.
Thomas: So, basically, am I hearing you right? They don't want to be defending Israel. They want to be offending Iran's proxies.
Aimen: But only if there is a international alliance led by the United States or NATO, then yes, they will participate because there is a global willingness to get rid of the region infested with the most or the biggest number of non-state actors armed to the teeth, and private armies like the Middle East.
But you cannot do that without an international alliance. If there is no international alliance with a firm objective and a firm end game here of getting rid of these proxies, then what’s the worst the Saudis are going to do? Sorry, leave us out of it. We're not interested in half solutions.
Thomas: What about the Arab man on the street, and the extent to which the Sunni powers must always kind of take a careful, delicate balance, strike a delicate balance, whenever any violence against Israel is in the mix.
So, Adam Osman on Facebook says, or asks, “Do you think as this conflict spreads, that there will be more unity among Arab nations to” (he puts it), “Defend the impact of Israel and allied forces?”
Basically to defend, I think, Palestinians against Israeli aggression in the sense especially as the war arrives on the border of some more developed nations, I guess Saudi, et cetera, and the chance of diplomatic interventions reduces like the normalisation process with Israel.
So, there is broadly speaking now amongst not just the Arab street, but the Muslim street, a renewed sense of solidarity against the Zionist enemy. This is part of Iran's strategy, of course, and governments like the Saudi government must be aware of this, and they must realise that it paralyses them to some extent, or am I exaggerating that, Aimen?
Aimen: Thomas, there is no question that there is an increased sense of solidarity with the Palestinians within the Arab world, whether among Shia or Sunnis, it's across the sectarian divide, no question.
But anyone who think that Iran gained some brownie points out of this is mistaken. The sectarian divide is still deep, in fact, deeper than ever before, because in fact, there is a great deal of blame going on among Sunnis blaming the Iranians for pushing Hamas to do what they've done on October 7th, which provoked the well anticipated, and everyone knew what the Israelis are going to do.
There is a scene in Ender’s Game. It's a movie basically based on a book in which a smaller boy basically pummels another boy into the ground so much just to make sure basically he never get up again, and beat him up. And the Israelis are in this position right now, they have that psychology like, you pummel me, I’ll pummel you.
And so, this is why the anticipated destruction on Gaza, which was already in the mind of every Arab, when they heard about October 7, they realised, oh dear, what's going to happen? Of course, there are rational people who think about it rationally.
Now, if you think about it, Iran is not going to benefit from a divided Arab street because the Arab street is already divided. And even in Bahrain, for example, I mean, you see the Shia are protesting against Israel and the Sunnis are staying home. They don't give a damn.
They have a solidarity with the Palestinian as a people, but not with Hamas. And definitely, they do not support the Israelis. The issue here is the fact that leave us out of it, because this, we do not smell as they say, basically that you are doing it for the right reasons.
You see, the first Hadith in every single book in Islam starts with this Hadith, “Inna ma’al a’maal bin niyya” in that actions are judged against intentions. So, they always ask the question in the Arab world, they ask the question, what is Iran's intention behind all of this? Really loving the Palestinians, really for Jerusalem?
And the majority says, no, it's not. It is to serve Iran hegemony and their plans for mastery of the Middle East, their lips say Jerusalem, but their triggers are towards Mecca and Medina and Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and Bahrain and Kuwait. Therefore, never trust them.
No, no, no, no. You see, the idea that this will create a solidarity, no, because the intentions are very clear. It's not for the Palestinian sake. There is a much greater in sinister plan behind it.
Thomas: Well, let's talk about the international community. If that's even the right word.
Aimen: Is there something as such, I mean, to begin with?
Thomas: Yeah. The international community's response to October 7th. Initially, there was a lot of sympathy for the Israeli position, although I would say even then less sympathy than would be afforded other states who experienced a similar atrocity.
But still, there was a certain amount of sympathy, a sense that a reprisal is absolutely required. I mean, they have to respond. Hamas is clearly a villain.
That sympathy rapidly changed, in a way that seemed almost coordinated. It was just quite remarkable how quickly huge demonstrations could break out everywhere.
Not just expressing solidarity with Palestinians, really, but expressing something like a political sensibility about the wider question of Israel-Palestine, that's just grown and grown and grown, especially in Western capitals. It's quite remarkable.
Aimen: It became, unfortunately, a victim of the political tribalization. There is a political tribalism. If you are on the left, you are pro-Palestine. If you are on the right, you're pro-Israel, which is complete nonsense.
I mean, one must always look at every conflict separately to understand the facts, why it happened, what is the reason behind it, and then make your own mind.
But this idea that automatically Israel is supported by U.S, U.S. is bad, U.S. is imperialist, U.S. is capitalist. Therefore, I am a left-wing Marxist, therefore I must be with the Palestinians. It's like, come on, grow up. For once in your lives grow up.
Thomas: I have been so depressed really about the situation in the Levant more broadly, I feel — and this is just, really Aimen, I’m just gesturing towards a sense here because who the hell knows?
But I sort of feel like there really is no solution. That the state that the Jews were given by the UN in 1947 was never viable for geostrategic reasons. That the Jews, the Zionists, whatever, the Israelis always knew that.
They always knew that in order for a state in that part of the world to be viable in the long-term, especially given the animosity of their neighbours, they would need to occupy the high ground.
That means that the two states solution was never really viable and that the Likudniks and Benjamin Netanyahu and all the others by rejecting the two-state solution, were just being realistic about the situation that the Israeli state could never seed the high ground to Arabs, frankly.
That the Israelis are never going to give up their state. That the Palestinians now have become pawns in a kind of psychodrama, like a geopolitical psychodrama for so long. I just kind of thought, oh my God, there's no solution. Just no solution. Aimen, what do you think?
Aimen: Well, I said before that I support the two-state solution, but by the two states, I mean, Jordan and Egypt, where Jordan absorb as much as possible of the West Bank from the Israelis, having the enclave exclave convoluted border that they can basically do with, where they can absorb the majority of the Palestinian population inside.
And after all, before anyone start jumping on me and saying, “You are against self-determination.” Well, sorry guys, until 1967, the West Bank was part of Jordan, and the people there were Jordanian citizens, and they were never called Palestinians. So, they were called Jordanians, and the people in Gaza were called Egyptians because they had Egyptian passports until 1967. So-
Thomas: I can understand all this, Aimen-
Aimen: This is why I say, let us just for God's sake, instead of following a KGB lie called Palestine, that was invented basically in Moscow somewhere in order basically to talk about the Arabs, the Egyptians of Gaza and the Jordanians of the West Bank, they should basically be absorbed back into their original countries.
All of Gaza should be absorbed by the Egyptians, all of the West Bank, except basically they can trade off some parts with the Israelis and have the convoluted exclaves enclaves and make it demilitarised. They can have it to the Jordanians, and then that's it.
This is the only viable solution. Any other solution is just not going to be viable whatsoever.
Thomas: Well, I mean, you're the expert, Aimen. But that doesn't seem like a solution to me. That seems like an expression of the lack of a solution. I just don't see that happening. I don't see Israel, frankly, allowing that to happen.
Israel just does not … it's not does not, it's not a question so much of will. It's just the cold, brutal logic of geography and of geostrategy. They cannot give up the high ground. They can't. They will always be vulnerable to aggression if they do so.
Aimen: Look, Thomas, I drove from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and it's like you drive out of Tel Aviv and 20 minutes, just 20 minutes by car, they tell you, “We are inside the West Bank now.” It's like, what? Yes-
Thomas: I know.
Aimen: And then you start climbing the hills. We have a set of people who's been there now for 75 bloody years and-
Thomas: And many, many, many more for longer. I mean, let's be honest.
Aimen: Of course. We're talking about the age of Israel as a state. I mean, and there are many communities who's been there basically for centuries. But I'm just talking about — and especially whenever I talk to people, when they tell me, and actually even within my own family, some people saying, well …
And I asked them, “Okay, let's say Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis and the Jordanians and the Egyptians, they all invaded. They all invaded, they all succeeded in taking over Israel. And we have them, we have all 6 million Jews there. What do we do with them?”
Thomas: Well, I don't even want to think about it. Because I feel actually Aimen, I feel I know what they would do with them, actually, frankly, and it makes me sick.
Aimen: No, basically, apart from the fact that many people would love to cut off their heads and throw them into to sea, at least some people say, “Well, we sort them out. We deport everyone back to their home country.”
And I say, “Aha, perfect, 3 million of them, so 52% of the Israelis are from Arab and Muslim countries. What do we do with them? The Mizrahis, the Sepharden. What do we do with the Sephardic Jews who are from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya?
What do we do with the Mizrahis who are from Iran and Yemen and even Najran in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, for God's sake, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, Iran, Turkey, what do we do with them? I mean, they will never be welcome back. So, what do you do with them?
And this is why, unless basically if you have any good solutions, you are advocating for genocide.
And then the other side, you have Israelis also like Ben-Gvir and others who advocated nuclear bombs over Gaza, whatever. And they want to have a genocide of their own.
The language is genocidal before anyone telling me, “Aimen, you are supporting genocide of the people of Gaza.” And I would say, well, I mean let me put it this way. If the situation was reversed, if the Jews basically were concentrated in Gaza and the Palestinians were living in modern day Israel, and let's say Jewish Haganah terrorists basically infiltrated into Palestine, and killed 1200 Palestinians, what would they do?
The answer is that they will do exactly as the Israelis are doing right now, if not even worse. And the reason is because this is the warfare in the Middle East. It is biblical, it is Qur’anic, it is according to the Torah.
It is according to the Hadith. It is according to every single religious text, which is overwhelming force against any population that tries to harm you. And this is why, dear listeners, do not expect merciful wars. And anyone who wants clean war, good war, merciful war, well wake up.
Thomas: Well, Aimen, I started that question depressed, and I've ended it suicidal. So, thank you.
Aimen: I'm so sorry.
Thomas: I texted you in early December, I think a text that was very heartbreaking for me that said — I sent you a text saying, “Aimen, I think Iran is going to win.” And you replied just with a little tear emoji.
Aimen: Yeah.
Thomas: And I'm not talking in the long-term here, looking at the complexity, the geostrategic, the geographical, the cultural complexity of the situation. I am tempted to just say, Iran will win.
Aimen: In the short-term. Yes.
Thomas: That is as it is. But let's finish this special episode by broadening our perspective out to the global order that is emerging at the present moment. We like to talk about the new global order on Conflicted.
Jay Daniel, dear listener on X asks, “Coinciding with some Middle Eastern countries joining the BRICS, does the whole situation” (I guess he means the conflict in the Middle East at the moment), “Mark a shift among regional nations, Middle Eastern countries, to preferring a Chinese market world order?”
And the concomitant question is, is America finished? Because in line with my depressing sense that in the long-term Iran is going to win, is I think America's on the way out. There's a U.S. presidential election coming up. Already, it's a shit show.
Just this morning we wake up to see the results of the Iowa caucuses landing an overwhelming support for Donald Trump, who is more deranged than ever.
The left in the U.S. rapidly putting pressure on Joe Biden once again, not, I think realistically, understanding the role that America actually plays in keeping the globe open for business and wanting some more idealistic foreign policy. I think America's finished.
Aimen: No, I don't think.
Thomas: So, what does this all mean, Aimen?
Aimen: I don't think, I don't think at all, first of all-
Thomas: You don't think, oh, great, cheer me up, Aimen. Cheer me up.
Aimen: Okay, I'll cheer you up. First of all, what's happening actually is more of a balancing of the priorities as far as the Middle East is concerned. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Iran, they all joined BRICS, not out of political solidarity. It's purely commercial.
I mean, BRICS is commercial and anyone who thinks otherwise, basically is deluding themselves. Do you really think that Brazil, India, and China have the same agenda in the world? Hell no.
Thomas: Aimen, how is that different from America's global order? It's also just business, my friend.
Aimen: It is purely business. But you see there is a huge difference between what America offers and what China offers. You see the Middle East, especially the GCC, so I'm talking here especially about the two giant engines of the Middle East economy which is UAE and Saudi Arabia.
So, you see here the issue here is the fact that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are industrialising. All of this is happening. But who can help them do that? Not the U.S. The U.S. has abandoned industry long time ago.
U.S. now is a big idea, high tech economy. It's not a mid-level size, mid-industry, mid-stream economy. China is, China can help the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and Egypt industrialise on the way that they need in terms of pharmaceuticals, in terms of metals, in terms of aluminium, in terms of minerals.
But the Americans, however, they have the high tech for nuclear energy, blue and green hydrogen, all the other things that the Saudi … and of course cybersecurity and all the other high tech industry that the Saudis need.
So, the Saudis are doubling down now on alliance with the U.S., with UK and with France, the Anglo Franco-American Alliance with Saudi Arabia. There is a doubling down.
Just wait until February. And there will be not one, not two, but three big announcement on defence that will shock the world and that will show that France, UK and America are still present in Saudi geopolitical sphere, still present in UAE geopolitical sphere.
No one and both officials in the UN, in UAE and Saudi Arabia are telling me no one is betting against Uncle Sam, even with Biden in the White House, because the U.S. is still the house and the home, not of the brave.
It is the home of Google, of Meta, of all the high tech Nvidia and the of artificial intelligence. They are the home of BlackRock, of Blackstone, of Vanguard and of State Street, between them $20 trillion of assets under management.
So, this is why I tell anyone who thinks that China or Russia can challenge the might of the U.S. digital economic power, wake up. It's not there yet. We're not there yet. There is 20 to 25 years still of juice in the American engine to keep it propelled towards that domination.
And anyone who thinks that the U.S. is going to allow Iran or any other power, especially the Russians behind them to upset the equilibrium in the energy markets is mistaken.
Yes, America doesn’t import a drop of oil from the Middle East anymore, but they are not free of the global index price. Whatever happened in the Middle East will affect the internal market in the U.S. immediately. Whatever happened in the Red Sea will immediately have implications for the supply chain and the inflation in Europe and America.
That is why in an election year you want to try to challenge the might of the U.S., you will pay the price. This is why I'm seeing echoes of 1914. If you think all of what's happening right now is happening according to a calculated plan, and that everything is measured and calculated, you are deluded. We are one mistake away from this thing getting out of hand.
Thomas: Well, Aimen, I think one day we'll have to do just a whole episode of us just talking and debating and discussing the question of America and its future. If you say America has 25 years left in the gas tank, and based on the analogy you just drew to 1914, well, the British Empire had precisely 25 years left in its gas tank in 1914, but 25 years passes like a flash.
Aimen: Exactly.
Thomas: And so, basically, I feel that you're agreeing with me when I say America's finished, I think, okay, maybe where Britain was in 1914. But where is the America in the wings that's going to come in, in the 40s and reconstitute the global liberal market order?
There isn't a player. We'll have to save that for another conversation. Before we end, just quickly, your thoughts on a potential second Trump term office for the Middle East.
Aimen: Oh my God, it's not going to be good news for Iran. It's going to be very good news for Israel, however, good news in the sense that they will have allies. But the question is, does he have the right policy?
The good thing about Trump, he's unpredictable. And this unpredictability causes Iran to pause generally. This is why I always ask myself the question, if Trump was in office, would Hamas have carried out their attack? And the answer is most likely no.
Thomas: Oh dear, does that mean that we just need to keep Trump in office forever to keep Iran from attacking Israel? It sounds like a really terrible, rather late imperial position for the American voting public to be in.
That's all we have time for today. Thank you, Aimen. Thank you, so much dear listeners, for listening and for all of your questions, we couldn't get to them all, but we really appreciate you sending them in.
Conflicted will be returning soon with another season as we respond to everything that has been happening in the Middle East and beyond. So, keep your eyes and ears peeled for that.
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Conflicted is a Message Heard production. This episode was produced and edited by Harry Stott. Sandra Ferrari is our executive producer. Our theme music is by Matt Huxley.